Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 23¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1583h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $18.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement. For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country. Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.