Will Abel Chavez advance from the CA-48 primary election?

1. 1

   Down 45pp over 24h

   Now 10¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 899h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 48th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.