PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá?

Probability

6¢

1h

-3.5pp

24h

+6.4pp

24h Vol

$38.29

Liquidity

$1.5K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
registraduria.gov.co)
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (12.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-2.1pp 7d
1007550250
9¢
May 26, 2026, 23:00 UTCJun 2, 2026, 22:26 UTC
updated 22:27:05 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-02T22-27Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 6pp over 24h

    Now 6¢; -3.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 12.7¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 22:27Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 70h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

+6.4pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: +15.5pp at May 31, 22:00 UTC (to 24¢).

Show top 8 of 42 hourly moves
  • 01:00 · -9.4pp → 0¢
  • Jun 1, 18:00 UTC · -9.4pp → 0¢
  • Jun 1, 15:00 UTC · -9.4pp → 0¢
  • Jun 1, 13:00 UTC · -9.4pp → 0¢
  • Jun 1, 12:00 UTC · -9.4pp → 0¢
  • Jun 1, 11:00 UTC · -9.4pp → 0¢
  • Jun 1, 09:00 UTC · -9.4pp → 0¢
  • May 31, 22:00 UTC · +15.5pp → 24¢
updated 22:27:05 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 22:27:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventColombia Presidential Election 1st round: Most votes from Bogotá
Category · Politics

Market Description

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most votes from the Bogotá Capital District in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

presidential election

Reason

Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá?"?

As of Tue, 02 Jun 2026 22:27:05 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +6.4pp in the last 24 hours, -3.5pp in the last hour, and -2.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$38.29 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 12.7¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket