Velvety-Burn
0x03805a13a0b3e058f55f6c6af95389d4f431073d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$20.2K
Total PnL
$241.9K
Realised
$291.8K
Win rate
100%
142 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?
2284 shares @ 8.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.3K
$2.1K
- NO
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
2218 shares @ 82.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$2.0K
$158.94
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
2789 shares @ 6.7¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$1.8K
$1.6K
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
2322 shares @ 0.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.8K
$1.8K
- YES
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
2345 shares @ 3.6¢·now 71.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$1.6K
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
2716 shares @ 2.9¢·now 38.9¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.1K
$975.22
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
2680 shares @ 20.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.0K
$468.98
- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2416 shares @ 3.6¢·now 40.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$974.81
$888.53
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
2907 shares @ 41.4¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$973.72
$-229.41
- YES
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
6648 shares @ 3.1¢·now 13.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$870.95
$663.19
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONBank of Japan Decision in July?$218.28Jul 14, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$216.84Jul 14, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$216.41Jul 14, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.84Jul 14, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 15?$18.00Jul 14, 14:04 UTC
- MERGEWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$200.53Jul 14, 14:02 UTC
- CONVERSIONFed Decision in September?$110.09Jul 14, 14:02 UTC
- CONVERSIONFed Decision in September?$300.91Jul 14, 14:02 UTC
- CONVERSIONFed Decision in September?$500.00Jul 14, 14:01 UTC
- MERGEWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$89.00Jul 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$481.44Jul 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$497.62Jul 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$490.49Jul 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$216.09Jul 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$129.58Jul 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$4.96Jul 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$175.46Jul 14, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$295.19Jul 14, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$109.57Jul 14, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$289.74Jul 14, 14:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 142 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
142 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $207.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 13:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 14:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 142 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.