Will Abelardo de la Espriella win at least 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?
Probability
11¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$113.86
Liquidity
$4.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 56h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the share of valid votes Abelardo de la Espriella wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential electionTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 56h.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $4.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 56 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the share of valid votes Abelardo de la Espriella wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential electionTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 55.7h
- 16:17SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 56h.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Abelardo de la Espriella wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of valid votes won by Abelardo de la Espriella, not any coalition of which he may be a part. If the results of the election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
presidential electionReason
Election markets must always classify as Politics, never as Sports — Roadmap §3 invariant 2.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Abelardo de la Espriella win at least 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?"?
As of Thu, 28 May 2026 16:17:24 GMT, YES is priced at 11% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$113.86 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $113.86. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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