SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 30, 2026
Creator

Will AD+PD win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?

Probability

65¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$1.9K

Liquidity

$20.9K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
electoral.gov.mt
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 1, 2026, 23:00May 4, 2026, 04:15
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 01
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $20.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 619.7h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 65¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

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updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMalta Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Category · Sports

Market Description

General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives (parliament of Malta) as a result of the 2026 Maltese general election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will primarily be ranked by the number of seats won. In the event of a tie, the party with the greater number of valid votes will rank higher. If a tie persists, the party whose name appears first in alphabetical order will rank higher. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election, not any coalition it may be a part of. This market will resolve based on the results of the 2026 Maltese general election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results reported by the Government of Malta, such as those published by the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/).

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket