Will Alexander Efimov win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Probability
37¢
1h
-4.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$24.49
Probability (last 7 days)
+26.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2298.8h
- 05:10SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2299h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 38¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 31¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 41¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 10¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 10¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.5pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 29.5pp
to 40¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 20.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 8¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.5pp
to 8¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (66.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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