Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1570.1h
- 13:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:53PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 13¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 13¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 13¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 14¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 13¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 14¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 14¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 14¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 14¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 14¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 13¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 12¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 13¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 12¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 12¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).