Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Probability
14¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+7.4pp
24h Vol
$85.42
Liquidity
$372.48
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6015.7h
- 08:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6016h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Real Madrid. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Real Madrid; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (14.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).