Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+5.3pp
24h Vol
$552.71
Liquidity
$3.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 16¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 394h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $3.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 394.4h
- 13:33SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 394h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:33PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 16¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 16¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 16¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 11¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 13¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 13¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.1pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.9pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.3pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending April 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in April 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).