Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?
Probability
16¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$14.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 16¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1562h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1561.6h
- 22:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1562h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 16¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.5pp at 2d ago (to 13¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 15¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 15¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 15¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationLinkTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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