Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
Probability
38¢
1h
-3.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$30.50
Liquidity
$115.03
Probability (last 7 days)
-31.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 38¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1567h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 33.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1566.8h
- 17:14SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1567h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 43¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.5pp
to 43¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 42¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.5pp
to 37¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.0pp
to 40¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 41¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 39¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 37¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -35.0pp
to 33¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -45.5pp
to 23¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.0pp
to 31¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.0pp
to 37¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.0pp
to 35¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -37.5pp
to 35¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.5pp
to 34¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -33.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 37¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.0pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.0pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -27.5pp
to 40¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -30.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -29.5pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 48¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.5pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.0pp
to 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the first check after it becomes availableAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowarena.ai
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (33.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.