Will any of the stolen KitKats be recovered by April 30?

1. 1

   Up 1pp over 24h

   Now 40¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Wide spread — 70.3¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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Nestle confirmed on March 29 that 12 tons of KitKat bars were stolen while in transit from Central Italy to Poland (see: https://x.com/KITKAT/status/2038313618509377852). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any KitKat bar stolen during this incident is recovered by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of the stolen KitKats by Nestle, a Nestle affiliate, or a relevant government or law enforcement authority. Confirmation of the location of a stolen KitKat, without physical recovery, will not count. The confirmed recovery of any amount of the stolen KitKats, including a single bar, will be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from Nestle, any recovering government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.