Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Probability
54¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$312.01
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 54¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 39.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 17:33SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 54¢.
Biggest hourly move: -5.5pp at 09:00 (to 52¢).
Show all 16 hour-by-hour ticks
- 11:00 · -4.5pp → 53¢
- 09:00 · -5.5pp → 52¢
- 07:00 · -3.5pp → 53¢
- 00:00 · -4.0pp → 53¢
- 22:00 · -3.0pp → 53¢
- 19:00 · -4.0pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · -5.0pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 52¢
- 1d ago · -3.0pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 53¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · +3.5pp → 56¢
- 4d ago · +3.5pp → 57¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · mediumepoch.ai
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (39.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.