BusinessMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Probability

12¢

-2.0pp

24h

-13.0pp

24h Vol

$5.7K

Liquidity

$11.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

-8.0pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:45

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

1
Down 13pp over 24h
Now 12¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.
2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
3
Thin liquidity
Only $11.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 106.2h
LOW
13:45Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
13:45Price
Probability down -11.5pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -9.0pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability down -10.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability down -14.5pp
to 10¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -16.5pp
to 8¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -12.5pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -13.5pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -12.0pp
to 11¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -9.5pp
to 12¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -16.0pp
to 10¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability down -13.0pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability down -12.0pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -13.0pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -9.0pp
to 13¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -9.5pp
to 14¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability down -6.0pp
to 17¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability down -5.5pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -7.5pp
to 22¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.0pp
to 22¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -6.0pp
to 22¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -8.5pp
to 22¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -8.0pp
to 21¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 24¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 24¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 23¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 10.0pp
to 27¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 11.0pp
to 26¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same event2nd largest company end of April?

Market Description

This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Apr 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket