BusinessMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Probability

85¢

-1.0pp

24h

+4.5pp

24h Vol

$1.3K

Liquidity

$4.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.5pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:50

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 85¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
3
Thin liquidity
Only $4.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 104.2h
LOW
15:50Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
15:00Price
Probability up 10.0pp
to 85¢
MEDIUM
13:00Price
Probability up 9.5pp
to 85¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability up 9.5pp
to 85¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability up 11.0pp
to 85¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability up 7.0pp
to 81¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability up 14.0pp
to 88¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability up 15.5pp
to 90¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 15.5pp
to 89¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 13.0pp
to 89¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 15.5pp
to 90¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 15.0pp
to 88¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability up 13.5pp
to 87¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 15.0pp
to 88¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 15.5pp
to 88¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability up 12.5pp
to 85¢
MEDIUM
16:00Price
Probability up 8.0pp
to 80¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 75¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 75¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.5pp
to 76¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 8.0pp
to 75¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 10.0pp
to 74¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 12.0pp
to 75¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -6.0pp
to 70¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -6.0pp
to 70¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -16.0pp
to 63¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.5pp
to 73¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.5pp
to 74¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -5.5pp
to 74¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same event3rd largest company end of April?

Market Description

This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Apr 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket