Pastel-Twig
0xe4f97af1b97b51015da179cc649e8fac5b85c0d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$83.61
Total PnL
$-7.80
Realised
$-0.27
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
43 shares @ 93.2¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$41.88
$2.15
- YES
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
26 shares @ 76.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$26.00
$6.21
- YES
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
15 shares @ 77.7¢·now 32.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.86
$-6.79
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 85.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.28
$1.78
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
2 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.04
$0.04
- YES
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?
5 shares @ 7.0¢·now 32.6¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$1.63
$1.28
- NO
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.56
$-0.04
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 14.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.72
$-1.78
- YES
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
29 shares @ 3.1¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.59
$-0.30
- YES
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 3.1¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.05
$-0.04
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$2.45Apr 26, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$4.71Apr 26, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$4.71Apr 26, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$4.67Apr 25, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$4.68Apr 24, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$4.70Apr 23, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$4.50Apr 23, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$4.66Apr 23, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$4.66Apr 23, 04:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 19, 00:13 UTC
- MERGEWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$50.00Apr 18, 19:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 17, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the May meeting?$4.55Apr 16, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$0.03Apr 16, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$0.03Apr 16, 00:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Apr 16, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$0.03Apr 15, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?$0.35Apr 15, 18:47 UTC
- MERGEWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$5.00Apr 15, 16:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $3.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 00:20 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 26, 19:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.