Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?
Probability
26¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-5.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$172.96
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 26¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 438h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 27.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 438.2h
- 17:46SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 438h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-12.5pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.
Biggest hourly move: -27.5pp at 17:00 (to 23¢).
Show all 24 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · -27.5pp → 23¢
- 15:00 · -23.0pp → 26¢
- 14:00 · -24.5pp → 22¢
- 12:00 · -12.0pp → 26¢
- 11:00 · -11.0pp → 26¢
- 09:00 · -11.5pp → 26¢
- 08:00 · -14.0pp → 21¢
- 06:00 · -9.5pp → 20¢
- 05:00 · -4.5pp → 26¢
- 03:00 · -11.5pp → 26¢
- 02:00 · -17.5pp → 25¢
- 00:00 · -9.5pp → 26¢
- 23:00 · -5.5pp → 26¢
- 21:00 · -4.0pp → 21¢
- 20:00 · -3.5pp → 26¢
- 18:00 · +4.5pp → 38¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 37¢
- 1d ago · +3.5pp → 32¢
- 1d ago · -5.5pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · -6.0pp → 38¢
- 2d ago · -7.5pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -16.5pp → 31¢
- 2d ago · -13.5pp → 35¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for April 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on May 14, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al Consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in April 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacionAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowindec.gob.ar
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (27.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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