EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 16, 2026
Creator

Will Austria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?

Probability

3¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$100.73

Liquidity

$14.8K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 16h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 16, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
eurovision.tv
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 16, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (4.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
3¢
May 12, 2026, 17:00 UTCMay 15, 2026, 08:23 UTC
updated 08:23:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-15T08-23Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 16h.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 4.6¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 16 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 15.6h

    HIGH
  • 08:23Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 16h.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -26.4pp at 05:00 (to 3¢).

updated 08:23:33 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:23:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventEurovision 2nd Place 2026
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places second in the final. If no second place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

eurovision

Reason

Question text contains "eurovision" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Austria come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026?"?

As of Fri, 15 May 2026 08:23:33 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 16, 2026 (2026-05-16T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$100.73 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $224.99. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $14.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.6¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

11 wallets
Open on Polymarket