CryptoExpires Jan 1, 2027

Will Bitcoin kimchi premium hit 8% in 2026?

Probability

54¢

1h

-1.5pp

24h

-1.5pp

24h Vol

$100.00

Liquidity

$384.46

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.5pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 23:23
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 54¢; -1.5pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Wide spread — 11.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 6005.6h

    LOW
  • 23:23Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 6006h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 55¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.0pp at 3d ago (to 56¢).

Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
  • 19:00 · -5.0pp → 51¢
  • 04:00 · -5.0pp → 51¢
  • 1d ago · +4.5pp → 56¢
  • 1d ago · -4.5pp → 51¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 51¢
  • 2d ago · -4.5pp → 51¢
  • 2d ago · -5.0pp → 51¢
  • 3d ago · +5.0pp → 56¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bitcoin Korea Premium Index reaches 8 or higher at any point between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be CryptoQuant, specifically the Korea Premium Index chart available at: https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/market-data/korea-premium-index Daily values shown on the chart will be used. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. If the primary resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on a consensus of other credible crypto data sources tracking the Korea (Kimchi) premium.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jan 1, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
a consensus of other credible crypto data sources tracking the Korea (Kimchi) premium
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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