Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
Probability
35¢
1h
-6.0pp
24h
-19.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$229.31
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 20pp over 24h
Now 35¢; -6.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 42.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.4h
- 16:35SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 40¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 35¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 40¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 40¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 34¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 32¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 42¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 41¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 36¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 40¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 41¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 42¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 39¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 41¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (42.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).