Will Brad Moore be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Idaho?
Probability
8¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-8.6pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$17.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 8¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 554h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 553.9h
- 22:06SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 554h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-2.1pp over the last 24h, now 8¢.
Biggest hourly move: +16.6pp at 1d ago (to 21¢).
Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
- 02:00 · +12.4pp → 17¢
- 1d ago · +11.3pp → 16¢
- 1d ago · +10.4pp → 15¢
- 1d ago · +16.6pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +10.3pp → 15¢
- 1d ago · +10.0pp → 14¢
- 2d ago · +12.2pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · +10.4pp → 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.