Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?
Probability
45¢
1h
+13.5pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$3.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 45¢; +13.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1399h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 23.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1399.4h
- 16:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1399h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 34¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 41¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 40¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 42¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 40¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 44¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 40¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 42¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 39¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 40¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 34¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 35¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 36¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 36¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 48¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 49¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 39¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 47¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 55¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (23.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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