Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?
Probability
44¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$844.39
Liquidity
$32.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 830h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 829.9h
- 16:06SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 830h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 44¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 44¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 44¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 44¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 44¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 44¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 44¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 23.5pp
to 44¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 49¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 38¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 34¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election is currently scheduled to be held on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).