Will Charles Oliveira become UFC champion in 2026?
Probability
49¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
+36.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$16.55
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 36pp over 24h
Now 49¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 92.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5977.3h
- 22:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+35.0pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.
Biggest hourly move: +36.5pp at 20:00 (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
- 21:00 · +36.5pp → 50¢
- 20:00 · +36.5pp → 50¢
- 12:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
- 11:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
- 09:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
- 08:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
- 06:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
- 05:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.