SportsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Charles Oliveira become UFC champion in 2026?

Probability

49¢

1h

+1.5pp

24h

+36.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$16.55

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.5pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 22:43
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Up 36pp over 24h

    Now 49¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Wide spread — 92.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5977.3h

    LOW
  • 22:43Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5977h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+35.0pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.

Biggest hourly move: +36.5pp at 20:00 (to 50¢).

Show top 8 of 28 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · +36.5pp → 50¢
  • 20:00 · +36.5pp → 50¢
  • 12:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
  • 11:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
  • 09:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
  • 08:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
  • 06:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
  • 05:00 · +35.0pp → 48¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed fighter becomes champion of any UFC division between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (92.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

2 wallets