SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 17, 2026
Creator

Will Chet Holmgren win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?

Probability

15¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-4.6pp

24h Vol

$5.00

Liquidity

$6.6K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 17, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official NBA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (26.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-12.6pp 7d
Apr 29, 2026, 01:00May 6, 2026, 00:54
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T00-54Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 5pp over 24h

    Now 15¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 26.8¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1007.1h

    LOW
  • 00:54Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-4.6pp over the last 24h, now 15¢.

Biggest hourly move: +40.5pp at 2d ago (to 46¢).

Show top 8 of 62 hourly moves
  • 2d ago · +40.5pp → 46¢
  • 2d ago · +33.5pp → 39¢
  • 2d ago · +20.5pp → 26¢
  • 2d ago · +20.5pp → 26¢
  • 4d ago · -23.0pp → 5¢
  • 4d ago · -23.0pp → 5¢
  • 4d ago · -23.0pp → 5¢
  • 5d ago · -23.0pp → 5¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same event NBA Playoffs: Finals MVP
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NBA Finals Most Valuable Player award for the 2026 NBA Playoffs. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NBA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 NBA Playoffs are cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

10 wallets
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