Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?
Probability
13¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-11.0pp
24h Vol
$24.00
Liquidity
$694.66
Probability (last 7 days)
-20.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 11pp over 24h
Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 727h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 15.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 727.1h
- 16:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 727h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 13¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 13¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 13¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 13¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 13¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 14¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 17¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 11¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 17¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 17¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 32¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 32¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 32¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Texas Republican Primary runoff election for state Attorney General, scheduled for May 26, 2026. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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