Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-8.0pp
24h Vol
$436.86
Liquidity
$1.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
40% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryUS governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 22, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 2¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 22, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryUS governmentTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 22, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The event window has passed and the market should not be read as settled until the upstream resolution path is confirmed.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: US government
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Expired, unresolved
Orrery verification task Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? State: Expired, unresolved — resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? State: resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 22:31SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 19:59Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 3h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
-8.0pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -30.5pp at Jun 21, 19:00 UTC (to 11¢).
Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
- 04:00 · -20.5pp → 10¢
- 02:00 · -20.5pp → 10¢
- 23:00 · -23.0pp → 10¢
- Jun 21, 21:00 UTC · -30.0pp → 11¢
- Jun 21, 20:00 UTC · -30.5pp → 11¢
- Jun 21, 19:00 UTC · -30.5pp → 11¢
- Jun 20, 11:00 UTC · -28.5pp → 13¢
- Jun 20, 09:00 UTC · -29.0pp → 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
1Market Description
In April 2026, Anthropic released the AI model "Claude Mythos 5" in limited availability to approved partners in its Project Glasswing security program. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to Mythos 5 for all customers in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to "Claude Mythos 5," or a model confirmed to be the same model, to at least one US partner or client whose access was previously rescinded, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Mythos 5" or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to accessibility for at least one partner or client whose access was previously rescinded. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
claudeReason
Question text contains "claude" — matched the AI keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?"?
As of Mon, 22 Jun 2026 22:31:37 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -8.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 22, 2026 (2026-06-22T19:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$436.86 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.