Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability
9¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$12.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1233h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1232.6h
- 15:23SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1233h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 11¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 12¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 10¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 9¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 9¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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