Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
Probability
66¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$281.71
Liquidity
$29.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
+23.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 325.1h
- 10:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 325h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:55PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 66¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 66¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 67¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 64¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 64¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 64¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 64¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 64¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 63¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 63¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 65¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 64¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 64¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 64¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.5pp
to 64¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 64¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 64¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.0pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 63¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 63¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.5pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 18.0pp
to 64¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.0pp
to 62¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 63¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 62¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.0pp
to 63¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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