Will "davooxeneize" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?
Probability
3¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$75.65
Liquidity
$351.96
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the name of the listed Kick streamer with the greatest Hours Watched figure on the StreamsCharts Kick channels leaderTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 3¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $352 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the name of the listed Kick streamer with the greatest Hours Watched figure on the StreamsCharts Kick channels leaderTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: to the name of the listed Kick streamer with the greatest Hours Watched figure on the StreamsCharts Kick channels leader
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will "davooxeneize" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will "davooxeneize" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jul 1, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 374.8h
- 13:10SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -21.0pp at 04:00 (to 21¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 13:00 · -3.0pp → 3¢
- 11:00 · -3.0pp → 3¢
- 09:00 · -3.5pp → 3¢
- 07:00 · -15.0pp → 4¢
- 06:00 · -13.0pp → 4¢
- 04:00 · -21.0pp → 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the name of the listed Kick streamer with the greatest Hours Watched figure on the StreamsCharts Kick channels leaderboard, with the "Last 30 days" filter applied, at 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026. If more than one individual is tied for the greatest number of hours watched, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or if the relevant data is not available by July 1, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be the StreamsCharts Kick channels leaderboard (https://streamscharts.com/channels?platform=kick&time=30-days).
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "davooxeneize" be the most watched Kick streamer in June?"?
As of Mon, 15 Jun 2026 13:10:43 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 1, 2026 (2026-07-01T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$75.65 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $119.21. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $351.96. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.