What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Den of Thieves" be the top US Netflix movie this week?"?

As of Sat, 02 May 2026 22:39:09 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.9pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 5, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$658.98 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $1.0K. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $2.1K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-den-of-thieves-be-the-top-us-netflix-movie-this-week renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-den-of-thieves-be-the-top-us-netflix-movie-this-week/markdown.

EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 5, 2026

Creator

Will "Den of Thieves" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Probability

0¢

-0.1pp

24h

-0.9pp

24h Vol

$658.98

Liquidity

$2.1K

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 5, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
which movie this update ranks as the #1 Netflix movie in the United States
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

Apr 29, 2026, 22:00May 2, 2026, 22:39

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 49h.
02
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 49 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 5, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
which movie this update ranks as the #1 Netflix movie in the United States
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 49.3h
HIGH
22:39Signal
Resolution risk
Expires in 49h.
MEDIUM

Price movement

-0.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -24.8pp at 11:00 (to 0¢).

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Entertainment

Market Description

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

15 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket