Will Donald Trump be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?
Probability
31¢
1h
-5.0pp
24h
+19.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$58.15
Probability (last 7 days)
+21.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 20pp over 24h
Now 31¢; -5.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 846h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 47.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 846.1h
- 17:51SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 846h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+28.0pp over the last 24h, now 39¢.
Biggest hourly move: +21.5pp at 15:00 (to 32¢).
Show all 9 hour-by-hour ticks
- 17:00 · +16.0pp → 27¢
- 16:00 · +17.5pp → 28¢
- 15:00 · +21.5pp → 32¢
- 13:00 · +8.0pp → 19¢
- 12:00 · +7.5pp → 18¢
- 10:00 · +8.5pp → 19¢
- 09:00 · +9.5pp → 20¢
- 08:00 · +7.0pp → 18¢
- 06:00 · +10.0pp → 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed individual who hosts the first White House Press Briefing after Karoline Leavitt goes on leave. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Karoline Leavitt's leave is not announced, this market will resolve according to the next individual excepting Karoline Leavitt who hosts a White House Press Briefing as listed on the official schedule. If Karoline Leavitt does not go on leave, or if no White House Press Briefings occur between the beginning of Leavitt's leave and May 31, this market will resolve to "Other". For the purposes of this market, if Leavitt resigns or otherwise leaves her position, it will qualify as a leave. This market refers to White House press briefings by the acting White House Press Secretary (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Any press briefing by the acting White House Press Secretary will qualify, even if the host is not formally announced as the acting or interim Press Secretary. "New Media" press briefings or special briefings such as those including extra guests will be considered, so long as the acting White House Press Secretary is a listed participant. Impromptu press gaggles will not be considered for the resolution of this market; only events listed on the public schedule as briefings or announcements will qualify. This market will resolve based on footage of the next White House Press Briefing that Karoline Leavitt does not host.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · highrollcall.com
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (47.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.