Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 24, 2026?
Probability
22¢
1h
-0.9pp
24h
-3.9pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$105.92
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (43.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 22¢; -0.9pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 18h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 43.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 18 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (43.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 17.7h
- 06:16SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 18h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-3.9pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.
Biggest hourly move: +34.4pp at May 28, 06:00 UTC (to 36¢).
Show top 8 of 70 hourly moves
- May 28, 19:00 UTC · +33.5pp → 36¢
- May 28, 13:00 UTC · +29.9pp → 32¢
- May 28, 06:00 UTC · +34.4pp → 36¢
- May 28, 01:00 UTC · +32.3pp → 34¢
- May 27, 02:00 UTC · +31.4pp → 38¢
- May 27, 00:00 UTC · +30.4pp → 37¢
- May 26, 23:00 UTC · +30.4pp → 37¢
- May 26, 20:00 UTC · +30.9pp → 38¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order on the specified calendar date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal executive orders will qualify; other executive actions will not qualify. This market will immediately resolve "Yes" if the text of an executive order for the given day is published on the White House page for presidential actions (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) or the White House press pool. Mere announcements will not qualify. If no executive order is published by 12:00 PM ET the day after the listed date of this market, this market will resolve to “No”. In the case of ambiguity this market may remain open until it is confirmed by the federal register.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
trumpReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "trump" — matched the Politics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 24, 2026?"?
As of Sat, 30 May 2026 06:16:26 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.9pp in the last 24 hours, -0.9pp in the last hour, and +2.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $457.97. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $105.92. Spread between best bid and best ask: 43.5¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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