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PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Donald Trump visit Illinois in 2026?

Probability

54¢

1h

+1.5pp

24h

+6.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$247.24

Probability (last 7 days)

+9.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 6pp over 24h

    Now 54¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 34.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5986.1h

    LOW
  • 13:52Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 57¢

    MEDIUM
  • 07:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -9.5pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -12.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 59¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.5pp

    to 52¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (34.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.