Will Ed FitzGerald be the Democratic nominee for OH-07?
Probability
10¢
1h
-1.1pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$390.46
Liquidity
$13.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 10¢; -1.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 226h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $13.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 225.7h
- 14:15SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 226h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:14PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 10¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 11¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 10¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 12¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.2pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.1pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.1pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.3pp
to 35¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.3pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.7pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.1pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 5¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the OH-07 congressional district seat in the UAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
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