Will Elon register any party before 2027?
Probability
9¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+0.9pp
24h Vol
$5.19
Liquidity
$14.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-7.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5988.7h
- 11:20SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5989h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.2pp
to 6¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 9¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 9¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.3pp
to 9¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.1pp
to 9¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.9pp
to 9¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.7pp
to 8¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.4pp
to 8¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 8¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.6pp
to 9¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.2pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.2pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.8pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.4pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.3pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.7pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.8pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.3pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.9pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.2pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.1pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.6pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).