Will Enzo Maresca be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?
Probability
18¢
1h
-6.7pp
24h
+11.3pp
24h Vol
$90.40
Liquidity
$350.34
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 11pp over 24h
Now 18¢; -6.7pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 29.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6010.2h
- 13:42SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6010h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:41PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.6pp
to 18¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.2pp
to 24¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.8pp
to 23¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 13¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 9¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.7pp
to 10¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 9¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 9¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 14¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 9¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.8pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.8pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.4pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.4pp
to 2¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 3¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 3¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 4¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -26.5pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Real Madrid. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Real Madrid; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (29.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).