Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$885.75
Probability (last 7 days)
-18.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 100h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $886 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 100.3h
- 19:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 100h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -6.4pp at 2d ago (to 2¢).
Show all 2 hour-by-hour ticks
- 2d ago · -4.3pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -6.4pp → 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q1 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- GDP releaseOfficial statisticsextracted · highec.europa.eu
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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