Rude-Ecology
0x7ac42386d934093f2fc7aa2f52fc0da59c434f44
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$109.74
Total PnL
$-131.77
Realised
$58.64
Win rate
62%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
NATO article 5 before 2027?
181 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.54
$-0.90
- YES
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 5.8¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.50
$-1.10
- YES
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
199 shares @ 2.5¢·now 5.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$10.12
$5.15
- YES
Will Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
196 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Feb 28, 2027$9.92
$0.10
- NO
Will the Republican Party win the TX-11 House seat?
111 shares @ 7.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$7.23
$-0.56
- YES
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
124 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.82
$-5.58
- YES
Will XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026?
196 shares @ 3.7¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.68
$-1.51
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
160 shares @ 1.7¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.07
$1.36
- YES
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?
116 shares @ 6.1¢·now 3.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.90
$-3.20
- YES
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
170 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.82
$-1.10
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$2.50Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.30Jul 28, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.40Jul 28, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.20Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.08Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.52Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.90Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.40Jul 28, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between -0.9% and -0.5%?$0.05Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $4.20 by December 31, 2026?$2.40Jul 28, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLGTA 6 launch postponed again?$2.46Jul 28, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.40Jul 28, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?$11.00Jul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$0.14Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$1.60Jul 28, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$1.90Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.20Jul 28, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$0.05Jul 28, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$0.20Jul 28, 12:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
69 closed markets, 62% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 18:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.