Will George Conway be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.2K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in thLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in thLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1224.7h
- 23:15SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.