Will Georgia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 4.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 482.5h
Price movement
-1.1pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Biggest hourly move: -6.1pp at 2d ago (to 2¢).
Show top 8 of 21 hourly moves
- 2d ago · -4.9pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -6.1pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -5.8pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -5.1pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -4.6pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -5.2pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -5.1pp → 2¢
- 2d ago · -5.1pp → 3¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 3 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 3 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (4.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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