OtherMulti-outcomeExpires May 10, 2026

Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in April 2026?

Probability

5¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$388.24

Liquidity

$6.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-6.3pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 341h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $6.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 341.0h

    LOW
  • 18:57Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 341h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.8pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at 3d ago (to 6¢).

Show all 13 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 11:00 · -3.2pp → 5¢
  • 09:00 · -4.7pp → 5¢
  • 08:00 · -4.7pp → 5¢
  • 3d ago · -5.5pp → 8¢
  • 3d ago · -4.5pp → 8¢
  • 3d ago · -4.5pp → 8¢
  • 3d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
  • 3d ago · -3.0pp → 10¢
  • 3d ago · -7.0pp → 6¢
  • 3d ago · -7.0pp → 6¢
  • 3d ago · -7.0pp → 6¢
  • 3d ago · -7.0pp → 6¢
  • 3d ago · -6.0pp → 6¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 10, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is releasedAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
data.giss.nasa.gov
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket