SportsExpires Jun 15, 2026
Creator

Will Gregg Popovich attend UFC Freedom 250?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$262.75

Liquidity

$3.5K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-40.8pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
Jun 7, 2026, 14:00 UTCJun 14, 2026, 13:08 UTC
updated 13:09:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-14T13-09Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 15h.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $3.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 15 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

price pinned not settled
Trust transition

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 1¢ current price

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Gregg Popovich attend UFC Freedom 250? State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Gregg Popovich attend UFC Freedom 250? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 03:59Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 14.8h

    HIGH
  • 13:09Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 15h.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -47.2pp at Jun 12, 03:00 UTC (to 1¢).

Show top 8 of 55 hourly moves
  • Jun 12, 20:00 UTC · -47.0pp → 1¢
  • Jun 12, 19:00 UTC · -47.0pp → 1¢
  • Jun 12, 17:00 UTC · -46.9pp → 1¢
  • Jun 12, 14:00 UTC · -46.3pp → 1¢
  • Jun 12, 12:00 UTC · -47.0pp → 1¢
  • Jun 12, 05:00 UTC · -46.5pp → 1¢
  • Jun 12, 03:00 UTC · -47.2pp → 1¢
  • Jun 11, 07:00 UTC · -46.4pp → 1¢
updated 13:09:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:09:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will attend UFC Freedom 250?
Category · Sports

Market Description

The UFC Freedom 250 event is scheduled to occur on June 14, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends UFC Freedom 250. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

ufc

Reason

UFC — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Gregg Popovich attend UFC Freedom 250?"?

As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 13:09:03 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -40.8pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 15, 2026 (2026-06-15T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$262.75 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $407.96. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

13 wallets
Open on Polymarket