Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary?
Probability
19¢
1h
-5.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$5.68
Liquidity
$2.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 893h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 892.7h
- 19:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 893h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 19¢.
Biggest hourly move: +14.0pp at 1d ago (to 30¢).
Show all 18 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · +3.5pp → 19¢
- 17:00 · +13.5pp → 29¢
- 00:00 · +7.0pp → 22¢
- 22:00 · +12.5pp → 28¢
- 21:00 · +5.5pp → 21¢
- 20:00 · +7.5pp → 23¢
- 1d ago · +10.0pp → 26¢
- 1d ago · +5.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +14.0pp → 30¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 15¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 17¢
- 2d ago · -3.0pp → 15¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 17th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for CaliforniaAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowsos.ca.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.