Will "Hulk Hogan: Real American" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Probability
2¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
-21.1pp
24h Vol
$57.00
Liquidity
$521.81
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarywhich show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United StatesTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 21pp over 24h
Now 2¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 59h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $522 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 59 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarywhich show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United StatesTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 58.7h
- 13:16SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 59h.
Price movement
-21.1pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.7pp at 13:00 (to 2¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 13:00 · -24.7pp → 2¢
- 12:00 · -24.6pp → 2¢
- 11:00 · -24.6pp → 2¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 Netflix show in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Alerts
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