Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k?
Probability
12¢
1h
+5.3pp
24h
+1.4pp
24h Vol
$188.21
Liquidity
$1.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 12¢; +5.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3058h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 13.4¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3058.0h
- 13:57SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 3058h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.9pp
to 6¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.3pp
to 6¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.1pp
to 6¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.9pp
to 6¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.6pp
to 6¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.3pp
to 10¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.4pp
to 10¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.4pp
to 10¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.2pp
to 11¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.9pp
to 13¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.4pp
to 7¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.2pp
to 7¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.9pp
to 7¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.1pp
to 8¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.1pp
to 7¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.7pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.2pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.8pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Drake's new album 'Iceman' is expected to release in the summer of 2026. This market will resolve according to the debut week sales for Drake's album 'Iceman', according to Hits Daily Double. If the album 'Iceman' has not been released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the album’s debut week sales fall exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "HITS TOP 50" list found at https://hitsdailydouble.com/sales_plus_streaming, specifically, the figure in the column titled "Activity", once the results are finalized for the album’s debut week. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (13.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).