Will Jack Schlossberg be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
Probability
25¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$27.80
Liquidity
$24.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1397h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $24.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1397.3h
- 18:42SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 1397h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.
Biggest hourly move: +9.0pp at 10:00 (to 25¢).
Show all 35 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:41 · +9.0pp → 25¢
- 17:00 · +8.5pp → 25¢
- 16:00 · +8.5pp → 25¢
- 15:00 · +8.0pp → 25¢
- 13:00 · +9.0pp → 26¢
- 12:00 · +9.0pp → 26¢
- 10:00 · +9.0pp → 25¢
- 09:00 · +8.5pp → 25¢
- 08:00 · +8.5pp → 25¢
- 06:00 · +8.5pp → 25¢
- 05:00 · +8.5pp → 25¢
- 03:00 · +8.0pp → 24¢
- 02:00 · +6.5pp → 23¢
- 00:00 · +7.0pp → 24¢
- 22:00 · +6.0pp → 23¢
- 20:00 · +8.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · +7.0pp → 24¢
- 1d ago · +8.5pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · +5.5pp → 22¢
- 1d ago · +4.5pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 21¢
- 1d ago · +4.0pp → 21¢
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 21¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 17¢
- 4d ago · -4.5pp → 16¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 17¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 17¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 17¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 17¢
- 4d ago · -4.0pp → 17¢
- 4d ago · -4.5pp → 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 23, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in thAmbiguous wordingextracted · lowdemocrats.org
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.