Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2026 AFC South?
Probability
33¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$8.97
Liquidity
$2.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 4, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NFL dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 33¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $2.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 4, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial NFL dataTypeOfficial sports resultConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 4, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 5531.5h
Price movement
+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 33¢.
Biggest hourly move: +15.0pp at May 16, 13:00 UTC (to 44¢).
Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
- 06:00 · -11.0pp → 32¢
- May 16, 21:00 UTC · +11.0pp → 33¢
- May 16, 13:00 UTC · +15.0pp → 44¢
- May 16, 04:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 45¢
- May 16, 00:00 UTC · +7.5pp → 36¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 37¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · +12.5pp → 43¢
- May 14, 08:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 22¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC South division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
nfl Reason
NFL — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2026 AFC South?"?
As of Mon, 18 May 2026 12:31:17 GMT, YES is priced at 33% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +2.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 4, 2027 (2027-01-04T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$8.97 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $334.08. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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