Known-Use
0x21ffd2b7a212a6f277ed3eca1a9f8efcbca90d71
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$77.6K
Total PnL
$812.67
Realised
$16.9K
Win rate
69%
185 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5747 shares @ 73.2¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.1K
$-96.30
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
3240 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.1K
$-16.16
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
3720 shares @ 60.3¢·now 59.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.2K
$-46.60
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
5423 shares @ 52.8¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$2.2K
$-668.63
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2593 shares @ 76.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.9K
$-40.78
- NO
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
3657 shares @ 58.3¢·now 51.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.9K
$-260.01
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2283 shares @ 80.4¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.8K
$-7.33
- NO
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1905 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.7K
$1.91
- NO
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
1759 shares @ 97.3¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$-13.93
- NO
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1687 shares @ 99.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.7K
$-7.95
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 25?$2.10Jul 25, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 25?$2.20Jul 25, 07:22 UTC
- TRADESELLHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$0.50Jul 25, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael military action against Yemen by July 31?$7.18Jul 25, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$35.60Jul 25, 07:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$5.40Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 26?$16.98Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 26?$5.46Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 26?$3.60Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 26?$10.90Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 26?$41.37Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 26?$24.30Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on July 26?$4.90Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLNBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?$1.69Jul 25, 07:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$5.40Jul 25, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 27, 2026?$154.66Jul 25, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gretchen Whitmer be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?$6.64Jul 25, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 25?$30.00Jul 25, 07:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 26?$51.95Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 26?$7.70Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 185 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
185 closed markets, 69% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $23.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 07:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 07:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 185 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.